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How Iran might react to Israeli airstrikes

SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

The Israeli military says it has conducted a series of strikes overnight against military targets in Iran as retaliation for attacks over the past year. Israel's move was expected, but the question now is how or if Iran will respond. NPR's international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam joins us. Jackie, thanks for being with us.

JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: Morning, Scott.

SIMON: And first, please, the details about this overnight attack.

NORTHAM: The Israeli military says it carried out three waves of what it calls precision strikes on Iranian military targets and that - you know, it hit the country's air defenses, as well as sites where they make drones and ballistic missiles. Iran says two soldiers were killed. So the Israeli strikes were limited. There had been great concern over the past few weeks that Israel would hit Iran's energy or nuclear facilities, but that didn't happen. I've been in touch with a contact in Iran this morning. And he says there's a lot of traffic on social media and jokes amongst supporters of the regime there about how insignificant the Israeli attacks were.

SIMON: The Israeli strikes were, as we note, in retaliation for Iran firing about 180 missiles towards Israel earlier this month, which itself was a response to the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders by Israel and the ground war in Lebanon, all of which has created this kind of back-and-forth eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth. How great is the concern that Iran could now launch another attack against Israel?

NORTHAM: Oh, definitely there's a concern. There's always a concern that retaliatory strikes between Israel and Iran could spark a larger regional war - you know, one that could potentially involve the U.S. militarily if it felt that it needed to defend Israel. You know, Scott, if one of these strikes had hit Iran's energy or nuclear facilities, that would have been a red line for Tehran. I spoke earlier this morning with Sanam Vakil. She's an Iran specialist at Chatham House, which is a London-based think tank. And she says the fact that this was relatively restrained may be sending a signal that this conflict can be contained. Let's have a listen to her.

SANAM VAKIL: I think for Iran and Israel, there is space for them to back away from this escalatory moment. It doesn't solve the problem, but it creates a bit of distance for both sides to regroup and think ahead.

NORTHAM: And Vakil says, certainly, the U.S. and regional players, including Iran, had been working hard diplomatically to try and contain this conflict.

SIMON: And what's the response of the Biden administration so far?

NORTHAM: Excuse me. Yeah. The National Security Council actually held a background call late last night with a senior administration official who said essentially that, you know, perhaps hopefully, that the U.S. thinks this should be the end of direct military exchange between Israel and Iran. However, that same official said that if Iran chooses to respond, the U.S. is fully prepared to defend against any attack on Israel and has been communicating that message to Tehran. You know, the U.S. already has moved more troops and armament into the region. The other thing the officials said - that the U.S. did not participate in these strikes against Iran. It did not help Israel with these strikes.

SIMON: And, Jackie, any response to the attacks by other countries?

NORTHAM: You know, for the most part, reaction to these Israeli strikes has been muted. Qatar said the attack was what it called a blatant violation of Iran's sovereignty and a clear breach of international law. Egypt weighed in, saying that it condemns all actions that threaten the security and stability of the region, so sort of sitting on the fence there. But again, you know, the reaction has been fairly muted so far.

SIMON: NPR international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam, thanks so much.

NORTHAM: Thanks very much, Scott. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Jackie Northam is NPR's International Affairs Correspondent. She is a veteran journalist who has spent three decades reporting on conflict, geopolitics, and life across the globe - from the mountains of Afghanistan and the desert sands of Saudi Arabia, to the gritty prison camp at Guantanamo Bay and the pristine beauty of the Arctic.
Scott Simon is one of America's most admired writers and broadcasters. He is the host of Weekend Edition Saturday and is one of the hosts of NPR's morning news podcast Up First. He has reported from all fifty states, five continents, and ten wars, from El Salvador to Sarajevo to Afghanistan and Iraq. His books have chronicled character and characters, in war and peace, sports and art, tragedy and comedy.